Pioneer Institute Brief Says Census Broadened Data Sources Last Year
STATE HOUSE, BOSTON, FEB. 12, 2025……Massachusetts experienced a population surge last year, and state leaders have celebrated what it could mean for the economy, but a new analysis says the growth is due to an increase in humanitarian migrants whose numbers are being more accurately captured by the U.S. Census.
According to a six-page policy brief released Tuesday by the Pioneer Institute, the state’s largest annual population increase in six decades is primarily a result of better accounting for refugees and asylum seekers whose arrivals were often underreported in previous years.
Fueled by the highest immigration levels in decades, Massachusetts saw its largest population increase in 60 years between 2023 and 2024, according to Census data. Between July 1, 2023 and July 1, 2024, the state’s population increased 69,603 from 7,066,568 to 7,136,171 — a increase of just under 1% (0.985%).
The rate at which young adults and families are leaving Massachusetts also seems to have slowed for the first time since the pandemic, though a net 27,480 people still moved out in 2024. Massachusetts leaders have been taking the latest annual estimate as a win, after years of reports of declining population and exodus.
“This is really good news for us,” Economic Development Secretary Yvonne Hao told the Boston Globe about the latest data. “We’re not out of the woods yet. There’s lots of work we have to do [but] I’m very happy. … This gives me great confidence that we are heading in the right direction.”
However, the Pioneer Institute says a closer look at the Census methodology shows the population surge is driven by those who need the most help from the state, and doesn’t offset younger professionals moving out.
“Unfortunately, the revised estimates aren’t as positive as they appear,” said Aidan Enright, an economic research associate at the Institute. “In terms of economic impact, humanitarian migrants can’t make up for the domestic out-migration of residents who tend to be younger and more affluent.”
The institute’s research calls the 2024 Census numbers “an optimistic snapshot,” that masks the trend of Massachusetts losing residents who are “educated, wealthier, and more skilled.”
“The net effect? A temporary, surface-level population bump that obfuscates Massachusetts’ continuing out-migration issue and the diminishment of its competitive edge,” the institute said in its policy brief. “The true economic health of Massachusetts remains deeply at risk, and state leaders’ optimism is no match for the growing, systemic challenges that still lie ahead.”
The U.S. Census Bureau says international migration is among the biggest challenges to measure, especially among refugees and asylum seekers who are less likely to respond to Census surveys.
“International migration is difficult to estimate because of its complexity and dynamic nature,” says a Census release about their new international immigration methodology.
Previously, the Census Bureau produced estimates of foreign born immigration using data from the American Community Survey, which surveys about 3.5 million households each year. That data “worked well during periods of relatively stable international migration… However [has] limitations that could impact the accuracy of the estimates, particularly during periods of short-term fluctuations,” according to the Census.
To account for an influx of humanitarian migrants into the U.S., the Census Bureau last year also used data from the Office of Homeland Security Statistics and U.S. Refugee Admissions Program on border encounters and refugees to supplement the ACS.
With the new methodology better accounting for refugees, asylum seekers and other humanitarian migrants, the Census’s national-level immigration estimates increased by 69.5% for 2022 and 101.7% for 2023, compared to their previous estimates, according to the UMass Donahue Institute.
Comparing the Census’s 2023 immigration count in Massachusetts to the newly adjusted estimate in 2024, the institute estimates roughly 54,000 humanitarian migrants entered Massachusetts between 2022 and 2023.
“Thus, beneath the surface of these optimistic population growth figures lies a less rosy reality. While humanitarian migrants may swell the state’s total population numbers, they are not a direct replacement for the tens of thousands of highly educated young professionals, entrepreneurs, and affluent residents who continue to leave Massachusetts in elevated numbers each year,” the brief says.
The research was released as the Democrat-controlled Legislature advances bills to allocate $425 million more for emergency family shelters and to restrict eligibility to the shelter system, which in the past two years has become overwhelmed by families in need from Massachusetts and new arrivals fleeing their home countries.
