A newly released mid-year report from the nation’s leading actuarial organizations reveals a rapid and significant realignment of the risk landscape as perceived by risk managers. The “18th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks: Mid-Year Flash Report,” published jointly by the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA), shows a clear pivot from geopolitical concerns to economic uncertainty.
For property and casualty professionals, this report provides critical intelligence on the shifting priorities and anxieties that will shape the insurance market, underwriting appetites, and client needs. Based on a May 2025 flash survey, the findings illustrate a risk environment in considerable flux.
A Changing Risk Horizon: Key Findings from the Survey
The most striking takeaway from the report is the dramatic reordering of what risk managers consider to be top current risks compared to just six months prior.
- The Ascendancy of Financial Volatility: “Financial volatility” is now the top-ranked current risk, with its selection rate jumping by 24.1% between the November 2024 and May 2025 surveys. The report notes that this shift coincides with new U.S. policies on immigration, federal cost-cutting, and reciprocal tariffs, which have been viewed as amplifiers of risk.
- Shifting Systemic Concerns: Concern over a “Globalization shift” also increased, lifting this risk to the second-highest spot. At the same time, risks related to “Liability regimes & regulatory framework” entered the top five current risks.
- The Ebb of Geopolitical and Tech Risks: In a stark reversal, “Wars (including civil wars)” fell by 11.2%, dropping it from the top of the list entirely. Technology risks also saw a significant decline in their ranking as a current threat.
Long-Term Emerging Risks and Scenario Concerns
While risk managers’ views on long-term emerging risks remained more stable, the survey did uncover notable changes.
- “Financial volatility” also surged in the emerging risk category, rising from sixth to second place.
- “Disruptive technology” now holds the top spot as the number one emerging risk, while “Wars (including civil wars)” dropped from first place to seventh.
- When asked about specific scenarios of greatest concern, “Economic slowdown/Depression” was chosen by 58.7% of respondents, a substantial change from previous surveys.
- A new scenario for this survey, “U.S. policies since 2025,” was selected by nearly 40% of participants, underscoring the perceived impact of the current economic and political environment.
Concluding Thoughts for Insurance Professionals
The findings within the 18th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks present a compelling picture of a risk environment undergoing a rapid transformation. The velocity of this shift from geopolitical and event-driven risks to more systemic economic and regulatory concerns is noteworthy.
For insurance professionals, awareness of these evolving perceptions is fundamental to strategic thinking and sophisticated client counsel. The report provides a valuable data-driven look into the anxieties that may influence underwriting decisions and shape the next wave of claims. Readers are encouraged to review the key findings in the full report to gain a deeper understanding of the data and draw their own conclusions on its implications for their business and clients.
