Commercial property insurance rates are expected to continue declining as the industry approaches 2027, while commercial auto, general liability and excess liability insurers continue to seek rate increases, according to the latest Insurance Marketplace Realities 2027 report from Willis, a WTW business.
The report describes a commercial property and casualty insurance marketplace increasingly divided between lines benefiting from abundant capacity and competition and casualty lines confronting rising claim severity, litigation costs and continued underwriting pressures.
Willis reports that large and complex property accounts in its portfolio experienced average renewal rate reductions of 14.5% during the second quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, its 2027 outlook anticipates commercial auto liability rate increases ranging from 8% to 20%, depending on the risk classification.
The report also identifies Massachusetts among six states experiencing improved high-value homeowners insurance conditions, although underwriting remains dependent on individual property characteristics and loss exposures.
Property Rate Reductions Accelerate
The report’s extensive property analysis documents substantial rate reductions. Meanwhile, the market reverses the hardening cycle that began in 2018.
According to Willis’s internal bench-marking data, average property renewal rates declined 14.5% in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an 8.4% reduction during the corresponding quarter in 2025.
The extent of the reductions depended significantly on program structure.
Shared and layered property programs involving five or more insurers experienced average rate reductions of 23.41%, compared with 14.57% a year earlier. Single-carrier programs recorded average reductions of 8.42%, compared with 3.77% in the second quarter of 2025.
Willis forecasts additional rate reductions of 15% to 25% for shared and layered programs and 5% to 15% for single-carrier property placements.
Reinsurance capacity is contributing to competitive conditions. The report states that property catastrophe reinsurance rate-on-line indices declined approximately 12% to 15% at the January 2026 renewal.
However, Willis cautions that substantial catastrophe losses, hurricane activity and rebuilding cost inflation could affect the market’s direction.
Commercial Auto and Liability Remain Under Pressure
Commercial auto liability remains among the most challenging lines for insurers.
Willis projects rate increases. Willis expects 8% to 15% for lower- and moderate-hazard commercial auto risks. For high-hazard or otherwise challenged classes, the projection is 10% to 20%.
Auto claim frequency has largely normalized, but Willis notes claim severity still outpaces inflation. This outpacing reflects rising medical costs, larger bodily injury settlements, and substantial jury verdicts.
Insurers are placing greater emphasis on fleet safety programs, driver monitoring, telematics and loss-control information when evaluating submissions.
According to the report, general liability pricing is less severe than commercial auto. Willis expects 2% to 10% increases for large and complex casualty accounts.
The report notes that general liability insurers continue to experience underwriting losses. Nevertheless, increased competition, higher insured retentions and more selective underwriting have helped moderate rate increases.
Umbrella and excess liability also remain challenging, particularly for higher-hazard accounts.
For lower- and moderate-hazard umbrella liability, Willis forecasts increases of 3% to 12%. However, Willis forecasts 8% to 15% increases for high-hazard umbrella and excess liability programs.
The report nevertheless identifies signs of improving excess liability capacity and moderation in rate increases compared with 2025.
Workers’ Compensation Continues to Stabilize the Market
Workers’ compensation remains one of the more competitive commercial casualty lines.
Willis attributes favorable conditions to insurer appetite, available capacity and continued underwriting profitability.
Its large and complex casualty forecast anticipates rate changes ranging from a 3% reduction to a 2% increase, while its middle-market forecast calls for decreases of up to 5%.
The report notes that workers’ compensation achieved its 12th consecutive year of underwriting profitability in 2025.
However, rising medical and indemnity claim severity is beginning to affect underwriting margins. Willis expects insurers to remain attentive to medical inflation, wage growth and complex injury claims despite continued competition.
Middle-Market Insurance Rate Forecasts for 2027
The Willis report separately examines middle-market commercial insurance, where property and workers’ compensation remain competitive while auto and liability pricing continues to increase.
For well-managed middle-market accounts, Willis provides the following projected rate ranges:
| Coverage | Projected rate change |
| Commercial property | −8% to +2% |
| General liability | +2% to +12% |
| Commercial auto | +5% to +15% |
| Workers’ compensation | −5% to +2% |
| Umbrella and excess liability | +5% to +15% |
These ranges reflect the majority of well-managed middle-market accounts rather than guarantees for individual renewals.
Willis cautions that catastrophe-exposed accounts, adverse loss experience and substantial automobile exposures can produce results outside the projected ranges.
The report also emphasizes the importance of accurate property valuations and documented risk controls in securing favorable underwriting terms.
Massachusetts Among States Seeing Improved High-Value Homeowners Conditions
Although the report does not provide separate Massachusetts commercial insurance rate projections, its personal lines analysis specifically identifies the Commonwealth among states where high-value homeowners insurance conditions have improved.
Massachusetts joins Florida, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Colorado in this category.
Willis attributes improving U.S. property insurance conditions generally to greater competition, reinsurance stability and increased capacity, while noting that insurers remain selective about catastrophe exposures, construction quality and replacement cost valuations.
The report contrasts these improving conditions with continued capacity constraints in California, Texas, South Carolina and Hawaii, particularly for certain catastrophe-exposed or older high-value properties.
For Massachusetts insurance professionals, the report therefore presents two distinct observations: continued opportunities for competitive commercial property renewals, particularly on well-managed risks, and improving conditions in the high-value homeowners segment.
At the same time, insurers continue to apply underwriting discipline to commercial auto and excess casualty as they respond to claim severity and litigation-related exposures.
Source: Willis, Insurance Marketplace Realities 2027, particularly pages 16–17, 22–35 and 139–142. Rate forecasts are Willis’s projections for the market approaching 2027 and are not Massachusetts-specific unless expressly identified.
Access the Full Willis Report for Free
While this review distills the primary trends shaping the 2027 property and casualty landscape, Willis’s complete 145-page study covers 29 distinct product lines, specialty segments, and broking solutions—along with direct contact information for each North American practice leader.
Massachusetts insurance professionals can access and download the full Willis Insurance Marketplace Realities 2027 report free of charge on the WTW website here: Download Willis Insurance Marketplace Realities 2027 (WTW).
