The lowest fatality rate since 2019 is positive news, confirms more progress can be achieved
For personal‑auto insurers writing across New England, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s latest road‑safety snapshot offers cautiously positive news after three years of pandemic‑era volatility. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on Monday released its early estimate of 2024 traffic fatalities, projecting 39,345 deaths nationwide—a 3.8% improvement from the 40,901 recorded in 2023 and the first time the annual toll has dipped below 40,000 since 2020.
Key Points from the announcement:
- 39,345 deaths projected for 2024, a 3.8% decline from 2023
- 11th quarterly drop capped by Q4 -2024
- Vehicle‑miles traveled (VMT) up 1%, yet fatality rate slipped to 1.20 per-100 million VMT
- 35 states + Puerto Rico logged fewer deaths; 14 states + D.C. saw increases
- Final 2023 data: deaths down 4.3%, fatality rate down 6%
“It’s encouraging to see that traffic fatalities are continuing to fall from their COVID pandemic highs,” said NHTSA Chief Counsel Peter Simshauser. “Total road fatalities, however, remain significantly higher than a decade ago, and America’s traffic fatality rate remains high relative to many peer nations. To reduce fatalities further, USDOT is working closely to partner with the law‑enforcement community to enhance traffic enforcement on our roads, including speeding, impairment, distraction, and lack of seatbelt use.”
Sustained downward momentum
The drop marks a continuation of quarterly improvements that began in Q2 -2022; Q4- 2024 is the 11th consecutive quarter of year‑over‑year declines. Preliminary Federal Highway Administration data show that vehicle‑miles traveled (VMT) grew by about 32.3 billion miles, or 1 percent, in 2024, yet the fatality rate still improved, sliding to 1.20 deaths per-100 million VMT, down from 1.26 in 2023 and the lowest level since 2019. The seven‑year pre‑pandemic average was 1.13.
Regional and state performance
While NHTSA did not break out New England results in its early estimates, 8 of the agency’s 10 regions posted lower fatality counts and rates in 2024.
For carriers active in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont, the national and regional patterns suggest that frequency pressure on auto loss ratios may be easing even as exposure inches higher. A clearer view will emerge when NHTSA releases its 2024 Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) annual report file next year.
Final 2023 picture
Alongside the 2024 projection, NHTSA published finalized crash statistics for 2023. The agency confirmed that 40,901 people died on U.S. roads in 2023, 1,820 fewer than in 2022—a 4.3‑percent drop on the heels of a similar decline the prior year. The fatality rate improved by 6 percent, falling from 1.34 in 2022 to 1.26 in 2023 deaths per 100 million VMT.
Implications for New England insurers
Lower fatality counts typically translate into softer claim severity on bodily‑injury and fatal‑accident coverages, although the lag between crash occurrence and settlement can stretch years. The NHTSA data also hold underwriting significance for commercial‑auto writers, whose results have lagged personal auto due to inflation and litigation.
