Sophisticated Criminal Networks are Exploiting the US Supply Chain Says NICB
The U.S. is in the middle of a surge in cargo thefts, according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau, as the supply chain is increasingly targeted by organized crime due to its “low-risk, high-reward” nature. The NICB estimates that six to eight cargo thefts occur every day in the U.S., with an average per-value theft of over $200,000. A recent example occurred in Massachusetts, with the DOJ arresting and charging a New York-based man for the theft of crabmeat, blueberries, and cologne in Worcester. See Multi-State Cargo-Theft Conspiracy Targets Crabmeat, Blueberries, and More in Massachusetts
“Most cargo thefts are not the result of small operations, rather they are committed by well-funded, sophisticated criminal businesses,” explained NICB President and CEO David J. Glawe during his testimony before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee in July, 2025. “These criminal networks are exploiting supply chain vulnerabilities and abusing new technologies to finance other illicit activities, including drug and weapons trafficking and terrorism. The impacts are felt on kitchen tables across the country through higher prices.”
Continuing in his testimony, Glawe explained that over the past 18 months, the NICB had already assisted in more than 240 cargo-crime investigations, resulting in over 70 recoveries valued at nearly $40 million. Since 2022, the organization has opened an average of about 150 commercial cargo-crime cases each year. The NICB estimates that cargo theft costs the U.S. economy approximately $35 billion annually.
Key points highlighted in Glawe’s testimony from July 2025
- The U.S. is experiencing a historic spike in cargo thefts: The value of stolen merchandise and estimated losses broke the $1 billion mark for the first time in 2023, going on to increase 27% in 2024. These figures are projected to increase by another 22% through the end of 2025.
- Transnational criminal organizations are reaping the rewards: Through cyber-enabled logistics manipulation and new methods of identity theft, cargo theft has gone unchecked for too long.
- Stolen goods are often used to fund darker criminal enterprises: Items ranging from everyday consumer goods to high-end luxury are sold in illicit markets, fueling drug trafficking, arms dealing and terrorism.
- NICB and law enforcement collaborate closely to counter cargo theft: NICB’s special agents and intelligence analysts maintain strong relationships with federal, state and local law enforcement to investigate and dismantle organized cargo theft rings to recover stolen goods.
- Support for CORCA (S. 1404): Glawe reaffirmed NICB’s support for the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act to expand federal coordination and enforcement capabilities in investigations of interstate and transnational theft.
Cargo Theft Losses Jumped 60% in 2025 Even as Incident Counts Held Steady, CargoNet Says
Building on Glawe’s predictions, CargoNet, a business of Verisk, published a new study based on the latest data for 2025, estimating losses from supply-chain crime surged in 2025 despite little change in overall incident volume. Losses rose to nearly $725 million in 2025—up 60% from 2024—as organized criminal groups increasingly targeted higher-value shipments. The average value per theft climbed to $273,990, up 36% from $202,364 in 2024.
Losses rose as confirmed cargo thefts increased
3,594 supply-chain crime events across the United States and Canada were recorded by CargoNet in 2025, essentially unchanged from 3,607 events in 2024. But, the company reported a sharper increase in incidents involving confirmed cargo theft, which rose 18% year over year to 2,646 from 2,243.
That divergence—flat overall events but higher losses—reflects a shift in how theft groups are operating. “Criminal enterprises are becoming more selective and sophisticated, targeting extremely high-value shipments rather than relying on opportunistic theft,” said Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at CargoNet. “This strategic shift explains how losses can rise 60 percent even as overall incident volume holds steady.”
Theft dispersed geographically, with increases in several states
Theft activity also continued to spread beyond traditional hotspots. California remained the most affected state, with 1,218 incidents, with a shift away from Los Angeles County (down 11%) toward regions it described as historically lower-risk, including Kern County (up 82%) and San Joaquin County (up 44%).
Outside California, notable year-over-year increases were reported in New Jersey (up 50%), Indiana (up 30%), and Pennsylvania (up 24%).
Commodity targets shifted toward food, metals, and high-value technology
The report also noted marked changes in the targets of theft. Food and beverage thefts spiked 47% to 708 incidents, with meat and seafood and tree nuts “particularly affected,” and patterns varying by region. It also reported a 77% rise in metal theft, attributing the increase largely to demand for copper products.
At the same time, CargoNet said theft of consumer-grade electronics such as televisions and personal computers declined. In their place, organized groups increasingly focused on enterprise computing hardware and cryptocurrency mining equipment. Vehicle-related products—including tires, auto parts, and motor oils—also “remained attractive,” with a notable focus on engines and components bound for domestic vehicle assembly plants.
Outlook for 2026: continued high-value targeting and theft-by-deception risks
Looking ahead, CargoNet said it expects continued targeting of high-value technology products in 2026, including RAM modules, storage drives, and enterprise computing equipment. It also anticipates “theft by deception” groups will increasingly misdirect shipments tendered to legitimate carriers, bypassing compliance controls that have traditionally centered on the tendering process.
CargoNet said it is also monitoring national developments around nondomiciled CDL enforcement, noting that complex schemes can involve acquiring motor carriers with strong load histories—and that shifting enforcement and market conditions could create new openings for fraudulent operations.
